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Exporters of CIS square billet hope price trend to reverse - 20 Apr 11

The mood of CIS square billet exporters has changed many times this week. However, it has become clear by the moment that market players consider the downward trend reversal. Nevertheless, they have only managed to hold prices steady. So, quotations of semis at the Azov-Black Sea and Far Eastern ports have remained almost the same in a week, while some producers in the Caspian region have even attempted to push offers up.
  Market participants believe the next two weeks will show whether the price trend will change or not. Key customers’ deffered demand for semis as well as stable situation in the scrap segment play into the hands of steelmakers expecting prices to grow. Moreover, buyers from the Middle East and Turkey, North and West Africa, and SE Asia have become highly interested in CIS billet purchases by the moment. However, buyers continue to press prices down supported by forecasts about a drop in scrap quotations by May on higher supply.
Notably, depressed situation, seen in the Azov-Black Sea basin since early April, will be observed there next week too. However, only Elektrostal has taken desperate moves and reduced quotations by $5-10/t in a week while most suppliers have decided to leave the market temporarily without changes in prices ($605-610/t FOB).  
Market participants report having closed sales of square billet of April production at $585/t FOB Mariupol, Elektrostal (Kurakhovo) has taken bookings for part of May output at $580-585/t FOB Mariupol. However, currently the supplier, as well as others, has stopped offering the material, watching market developments.
At the same time, as not all producers have filled up April order book, only some of them are offering May production. In particular, a deal for billet of May production from ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih has been reportedly made with Turkish customers at about $605/t FOB. Nevertheless, Belarus SW has started offering May production at $635/t FOB Odessa, but no deals have been made at these levels. Some market players believe that the mill will supply the entire output to Liepajas Metalurgs (Latvia) due to its more convenient location.
The latest transaction prices for April production from Metinvest International S.A. have crossed over $600/t FOB, and the supplier has 10,000-15,000 t of the material available. In particular, contracts with Syrian buyers have been signed at about $605/t FOB. Russia's Mechel has also managed to sell billet produced in April by REMZ to the Middle East and SE Asia at $600-605/t FOB. Currently, the above suppliers have switched to wait-and-see mode, unwilling to sell the material at lower than $600/t FOB.
Novorosmetall, who sold April output in early April at about $590/t FOB, also stays away from the market and estimates the current situation.
No deals for the products from IUD are still reported, as the company refuses to sell even at $605/t FOB.
Meanwhile, after two-week lull, CIS billet suppliers from the Caspian ports have finally decided to return to the market with offers of May production. In particular, Volga-FEST’s products, being not offered to Iran for a long time, are now available to this destination at $605-610/t FOB Astrakhan. At the same time, despite the current trend in the segment for semis, Kazakhstan’s Casting has made offers of May billet at $640/t FOB Aktau, by $40-45/t up from late March. The seller probably tries to stir buyers up in such a way, convincing them that the trend will reverse soon.
However, these moves bear no fruits so far: Iranian traders have extremely low stocks, but are still careful in purchases, waiting till the domestic longs market revives. Governmental attempts to impose anti-offshore regulations, which will prevent some foreign suppliers from entering the market, also affect sales. Nevertheless, market operators believe the situation to stabilize soon and sales will normalize.
At the same time, quotations of Russian semis in the Far Eastern market are only nominal now: sales of May output are likely to be started at the beginning of next week. However, taking into account that most Asian buyers are unready to pay for billet more than $650/t C&F (about $625-630/t FOB), while traders' offers are coming at $670-675/t C&F ($650/t FOB), initial prices for Evraz Holding material are supposed to be set at $645/t FOB. The next tender of Amurmetall is forecast to be held on April 19.
(Source: www.metalexpert-group.com)
Apr 20, 2011 09:22
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