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Iran steel market Trend in Week 40th , 2019

Iran steel market Trend in Week 40th  , 2019

Billet

Billet price rose slightly last week from an average of USD 339/mt to USD 342/mt ex-work including 9% VAT on Tuesday. Khuzestan steel co, offered its billet at IME ( Iran Mercantile Exchange) and an upward trend  was expected. The mill supplied 20,000 tones and because of cash sale, was faced with 52,000 tonnes of demand, while the mill was able to increase supply by another 10,000 tonnes. Average closing price was USD 314/mt, while last week's closing price was USD 316/mt, which is USD 2 /mt higher and the demand was 30,000 tons higher. Khuzestan steel supply constraint indicates that on the one hand, billet export continues to have a positive trend, this is why Khuzestan Steel is reluctant to increase supply in the domestic market, which is facing a recession. On the other hand, an increase in supply can lead to lower prices in the domestic market as demand is very limited.

Besides, last year's bitter experience with the steel makers is ahead, with the average price of billet in October last year being USD 346/mt. It declined by USD 5.5/mt in November, then downward trend continued till January 2019 as It reached USD 272/mt ex-work including 9% VAT. But afterward started rising and by the end of last Iranian year (Second half of March 2019) was around USD 376/mt.

But market sentiment this year is different from last year as:

1-The stock market last year did not jump as much as currently. Most of the capital flows from steel market, property market, gold, foreign currency and other markets has gone to the stock market this year. Though, the proportion of capital in the steel sector has declined.

2- Last year downward trend was due to the decline in export, driven by state policies, while global billet demand was high. But this year we see the contrary as global demand is limited and the gap between export and domestic prices is not as high as last year.

The point is that with the subsidies given to the steel sector, steel export is still profitable, so export will continue to grow as the market shrinks.

Long Products

Average price of debar diameter 8-32 mm rose from USD 377/mt on last Saturday to USD 380/mt ex-work including VAT on Wednesday, due to a shortage of billet and pressures on export market. Debar production has fallen sharply and many mills have poor inventory level, but because domestic demand is very weak and global demand is not much, prices are not expected to recover.

 Price of I-beam sizes 14 – 18 ranged from USD 415/mt to USD 427/mt on Tuesday, but on Wednesday the price declined to USD 426/mt ex-work including VAT. This was due to two factors: first, Isfahan steel co.’s competitors with a significant price gap took some part of its market share and, on the other hand, traders with Isfahan Steel co I-beam in warehouses increased supply level as were gaining enough profit. Therefore, market price started declining. Besides, concerns over the price trend of past year have made traders more cautious.

Market insiders have two different views about future of long products market:

First view believes that in the next few days good demand will enter the market and this will affect the price and market prosperity.

Second view is worry about possible downward trend due to authorities market controlling attitude.

This time last year, debar price was around USD 416/mt, prices started declining by November and reached USD 324/mt till end of December. Then like billet market, prices became upward. But this year we see a big difference comparing with last year as neighboring countries as traditional buyers of Iranian long products are facing with recession, therefore, export significant improvement seems unlikely.

Flat Products

During last week HRC 2 mm thickness was faced with some downward trends. Mobarakeh Steel co HRC 2 mm thickness declined from USD 450/mt ex-work Isfahan including VAT to USD 483/mt as the mill’s HRC price at IME declined. Ahwaz Rolling and Pipe co product declined just by USD 4.5/mt to USD 480/mt ex-work Ahwaz including VAT.

Slab export is still booming, which does not allow the price of slab-related goods to decline significantly. But for Mobarakeh Steel co which produce its own slab, situation is different. However, the average price of Mobarakeh Steel co HRC thicknesses 3 to 15 mm, which was USD 497/mt on Saturday, reduced to USD 490/mt over the weekend.

Oxin Co HRP was faced with the same trend and was priced at USD 484/mt on Saturday, reaching USD482/mt by the end of the week. Kavian co HRP 12 to 30 mm thickness, like other flat products, declined from USD 478/mt to USD 475/mt ex-work including 9% VAT.

CRC market was depressed last week in Iran. Lack of demand for CRC as an industrial raw material shows demand shortage in downstream industries. The average price of CRC 0.40 to 2 mm thickness declined from USD 648 /mt to USD 642/mt ex-work including VAT. HDG price like other flat products was in a downward trend, with the average price falling from USD 725/mt to USD 714/mt ex-work including VAT. The stock market did not face serious demand of HDG and its price drop from USD 729/mt excluding VAT a week ago to USD 656/mt .

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CBI weekly average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 110.036 / 1USD

07 Oct, 2019

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Iran Steel News Bulletin                                                              

Oct 7, 2019 12:12
Number of visit : 133

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