The United States and Europe could cut their
dependence on China for electric vehicle batteries through more than $160
billion of new capital spending by 2030, the Financial Times reported on
Monday, citing a Goldman Sachs forecast.
The investment bank’s analysts believe demand for
finished batteries could be met without China within the next three to five
years, as a result of investments in the US by South Korean conglomerates LG
and SK Hynix, according to a Goldman report to clients viewed by the newspaper.
The report calculated that to achieve a
self-sufficient supply chain, countries competing with China would need to
spend $78.2 billion on batteries, $60.4 billion on components and $13.5 billion
on mining of lithium, nickel and cobalt, as well as $12.1 billion on refining
of those materials, FT said.
Goldman forecast that the US market share of the
Korean battery makers would soar to about 55% in three years, from 11% in 2021,
For now, China dominates battery production,
including the mining and refining of raw materials.
The analysts said this dominance could be unwound by
protectionist policies in Europe and the United States, coupled with
alternative battery chemistries that require fewer critical minerals from
China, FT reported.
Goldman Sachs did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.