News

Iran Steel Market Trend in Week 17th, 2025

Billet: Lower demand caused a decrease in billet price in Iran domestic market.

Long Products
Rebar: The retreat of demand lowered rebar prices.

I-beam: Buyers’ caution made I-beam price fall.

Flat Products
HRC: Buyers’ expectations caused a decrease in HRC price.

HRP: Lower demand caused a decrease in Oxin co HRP price.

CRC: The decrease in HRC price and lower demand pushed CRC price downward.

HDG: HRC price drop and market anticipations led to a fall in HDG price.

Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: Despite the disorder and confusions, the global market has reached its bottom. The decrease in billet prices has been in the range of USD10-20, while oil has remained around USD 70. However, markets remain in recession, and this recession will continue, consequently leading to a decrease in production. The fall in billet prices does not necessarily mean a drop in iron ore prices because the USD 90/mt range is the floor price for iron ore, and major mining companies have the power to withstand production cuts to maintain prices.

In the domestic market: Supply is moving towards limitations as power outages have begun. On the other hand, the drop in demand has led major suppliers to channel their supply. Claim-based supplies are seen throughout the chain, and this trend does not allow IME ( Iran Mercantile Exchange) price to approach the market price. On one hand, prices remain high on the IME, but buyers sell the goods purchased on IME below market prices. This trend deepens the price gap between IME and the market. This gap causes demand to retreat and supply to be limited as purchase volumes decrease. Out of the total 175,000 tons of rebar offered on IME last week, only about 20,000 tons were sold, half of which was claim-based. This trend of price and demand, along with power cuts, will reduce supply. The lack of rebar purchases will create a demand problem for the billet market. On the other hand, power cuts will put pressure on billet supply. Overall, billet producers face production and sales problems, which will lead to liquidity issues. In the current situation, production of semi-finished steel will not be easy.
The issue of Iran-US negotiations will also become clear by the, given the two-month time limit. If an agreement is reached, construction will flourish. If no agreement is reached, the snapback mechanism will be activated. In any case, according to the predictions of many economic experts, given the budget deficit, even with the lifting of sanctions, the exchange rate will certainly be more than Rials 700,000, and even in the most pessimistic scenario, it is predicted to be more than Rials 100,000. Although the steel market is currently facing a recession, the signing of an agreement with the US will quickly determine the market's fate. In any case, whether there is an agreement or not, the coming month market is expected to be more active than current month.
Ultimately, regardless of the outcome of the negotiations or the exchange rate, attention should be paid to energy and its impact on production.

CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 685,497/ 1USD
28 April 2025
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM