Global consumer confidence has retreated in April, as concern over the effects of tariffs spreads beyond the U.S.
According to the public opinion research firm Ipsos, the Global Consumer Confidence Index fell to 47.7 points in April, marking the second consecutive monthly decline and a 1.2-point drop from this time last year.
Why It Matters
President Donald Trump's tariffs have contributed to growing concerns among consumers and businesses in the U.S. about the economy, as measured by domestic readings of economic confidence in recent weeks.
Ipsos' most recent poll showed those fears might extend beyond American shores, with the country's global partners also at risk of disruptions to their exports and broader trading ties with the U.S.
What To Know
Of the economies assessed, five countries saw significant improvements in consumer sentiment, while seven countries saw a notable drop. All four subindexes of consumer confidence—current, investment, expectations and jobs—are down significantly this month, Ipsos reported.
The survey results were based on interviews with more than 21,200 adults from 29 countries. Sentiment was mixed across the surveyed economies, with Indonesia holding the highest national index score (61.1) and Turkey having the lowest (33.1), alongside Hungary (34.7), Japan (36) and South Korea (38.2).
In April, the largest losses were recorded by Australia (-3.1), South Africa (-2.9) and the Netherlands (-2.4).
The survey was conducted between March 21 and April 4, a period covering Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement of reciprocal tariffs on dozens of trading partners. However, it excluded Trump's April 9 announcement of a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs and the most recent escalations in the trade war with China.
According to Ipsos, U.S. consumer confidence is down 1.2 points since March, a significant drop that has been echoed across other indexes in recent days.
The University of Michigan's most recent report showed that consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month in April, dropping 8.4 percent in March. This brought the overall index to a final reading of 52.2, its lowest level since June 2022 and the fourth lowest on record since 1952.
The Index of Consumer Expectations saw a particularly steep (-10.1 percent) drop-off, with declines measured across age, education, income and political affiliation. Consumers' fears were largely due to "ongoing uncertainty around trade policy," the University of Michigan said in its release. It also cited the prospect of rising inflation, with the year-ahead inflation expectations surging to 6.5 percent from 5 percent in March.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently slashed its projections for U.S. economic growth to 1.8 percent, down 0.9 percentage points from the forecast released in January, while downgrading its global growth forecast to 2.8 percent from 3.3 percent.
In the foreword to April's World Economic Outlook report, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said Trump's April 2 tariff announcements had forced the agency to "jettison" its previous projections. He added that these could result in "a significant slowdown in global growth in the near term."
What People Are Saying
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, responding to a poll that showed 72 percent of Americans were "very" or "extremely" worried about the possibility of a recession, told ABC News' Martha Raddatz: "What I do know is that Americans are behaving very different than what the surveys say. So the surveys may say that, but consumers are still spending. So I prefer to look at what Americans are doing rather than how they're answering pollsters."
Joanne Hsu, the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers director, said in a news release: "While this month's deterioration was particularly strong for middle-income families, expectations worsened for vast swaths of the population across age, education, income, and political affiliation. Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead. Labor market expectations remained bleak. Even more concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warnings signs perceived by consumers."
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas wrote in the World Economic Outlook report for April: "While many of the scheduled tariff increases are on hold for now, the combination of measures and countermeasures has hiked U.S. and global tariff rates to centennial highs. However, the context for such increases is very different. Unlike in the previous century, the global economy is now characterized by a high degree of economic and financial integration, with supply chains and financial flows crisscrossing the world, whose potential unwinding could constitute a major source of economic upheaval."
What Happens Next
As of April 9, reciprocal tariffs have been placed on a 90-day pause. The administration has said that more than 75 nations have approached the U.S. in the hopes of negotiating down their duties, and Trump told Time magazine that he had made "200 deals," without providing specifics.
Reciprocal tariffs on China remain in effect, and the country is now subject to a 145 percent tariff on its imports after responding to these with its own retaliatory trade measures. Tensions between the two economies have softened in recent days, with the administration promising that the duties will come down and expressing optimism about the possibility of a deal being struck with Beijing.
Newsweek