Billet: Lack of demand stabilized billet price.
Long Products
Rebar: Despite the fact that rebar prices were nearing their bottom, demand pressure still caused prices to decrease.
I-beam: The market maker's efforts yielded results in the begining, but a lack of interest on the stock exchange led to a decrease in I-beam price.
Flat Products
HRC: The delivery of last year's supplies, coupled with silent demand, reduced HRC prices.
HRP: Falling demand caused a drop in Oxin co HRP prices.
CRC: The decrease in CRC price was due to the HRC prices and limited demand in the market.
HDG: The drop in HRC price and demand led to a decrease in HDG price.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: Oil price has fallen below USD 60, and with OPEC's plan to increase production, the price outlook is not bullish, especially with the upcoming hot season and reduced consumption. billet price has remained almost stable, showing a decrease of about USD 10, as prices have reached their bottom. The shadow of recession and instability has caused prices to fall in the global market, while the World Bank has predicted that global commodity prices will fall by another 12 percent this year and 6 percent next year. Oil price is also expected to remain below USD 60 until the end of 2026.
Therefore, expecting an increase in steel prices is futile. The only hope is that prices will remain in this range and that billet prices will not fall below USD 400 per tonne ex-work China, because China's economic growth, with the imposition of US tariffs, may reach three percent at most.
In the domestic market: The domestic market is grappling with two issues: First, Expectation: The market is waiting for the outcome of the negotiations and knows what policy to adopt depending on whether sanctions are lifted or reinstated. Therefore, it is not taking any action. This expectation has led to a halt in transactions, especially for finished products. The result is a continuation of price declines.
Second, Liquidity Problem: Banks have not released credit packages. Large sums of money are also blocked in housing, gold, and foreign currency. There is no hope for improvement in the steel market, but the stock market is attractive, and capital is flowing towards the stock exchange. In the current situation, the market is like a hunter lying in wait until the situation becomes clear.
Until a result is reached, the steel market will face reduced demand, falling prices, and stagnation. Under these conditions, the prospect of billet price falling below Rials 300,000 /mt is not far. This period will not be long, and the situation will become clear within a maximum of two months.
CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 684,772/ 1USD
05 May 2025
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM