Billet: Iran domestic billet price did not experience a significant change during last week. The control of the market by major suppliers played an important role in this.
Long Products
Rebar: Rebar price faced a very limited decrease because there was not much room for further reduction.
I-beam: With market maker activity, the price of I-beams increased.
Flat Products
HRC: Higher supply level by market leader and the market slump lowered HRC price level.
HRP: Considering that HRP price has reached its floor, no price change was observed. The market was stable.
CRC: CRC market was stable.
HDG: Lower HRC price led to a drop in the price of HDG.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: Prices in the global market have not experienced a significant drop. The price of oil has reached its floor and fluctuates in the range of USD 60. Price of iron ore continues to hover around USD 90. The outlook for the steel market does not seem attractive, considering that China is at risk of entering a deeper inflationary cycle, and the same expectation exists for the US market. However, price of steel has reached its floor even with oil at USD 50, and there is no possibility of further decline. The experience of steel production units shutting down in Europe in the near future will be repeated in the Far East, as Baosteel, a major global steel producer, has also decided to reduce production. Therefore, the price range will remain at this level unless demand increases for some reason.
In the domestic market: The domestic market will face a severe supply constraint starting this week. The reason for this is the reduction in governmental office working hours until 1:00 PM due to power shortage. This issue severely limits the circulation of money and goods and does not allow markets to be active. On the other hand, this limitation will affect production and lead to a decrease in output. With a pessimistic outlook, 40 percent of production capacity will be at risk due to electricity restrictions. No exact figures are provided by the relevant authorities regarding the reduction in supply, but what is certain is that the production trend of intermediate steel products will face problems starting in June. Another factor that limits supply is the exchange rate, which significantly reduces the incentive for production.
Given the talks between Iran and the United States, the market is in a state of anticipation. Everyone hopes that these negotiations will lead to a result that secures the country's interests. For this reason, most warehouses are empty. The general expectation is that the negotiations will be successful and Iran's assets will be released. If this happens. The exchange rate will not have a significant impact on the product price, and supply and demand will determine the price. If the negotiations are successful, an upward trend in prices will begin, and if the negotiations fail, the exchange rate will rise sharply and rapidly, which will also increase prices. In both scenarios, an increase in the price of goods is entirely natural, either from the demand side due to a positive economic atmosphere in society or due to an increase in the exchange rate, while in both situations, supply becomes more limited every day.
Since both the US and Iran need this agreement, the level of hope for an agreement is very high, although the atmosphere is also full of rumors.
CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 687,833/ 1USD
12 May 2025
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM