Billet: Long weekend holidays, coupled with market confusion over pellet and sponge iron prices, brought down billet prices in the market.
Long Products
Rebar: Weak demand led to a relative decline in rebar price.
I-beam: Weak demand caused a decrease in beam price.
Flat Products
HRC: Holidays resulted in reduced demand and a drop in HRC price.
HRP: Decreased demand was the reason for lower Oxin co HRP price.
CRC: The shutdown of consuming units led to a reduction in demand and a fall in CRC price.
HDG: Given the decline in HRC prices and reduced demand, HDG price had a downward trend.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: Global markets remain stable. The main reason for the market stagnation is the confusion stemming from disorder in US decision-making. Oil price has seen minor fluctuations, increasing by about USD 2 / barrel. Iron ore price have remained virtually stable. Scrap is traded at USD 345 -347/mt, Black Sea FOB billet is at USD434, slab at USD 420, HRC at USD 450, CRC at USD585, and rebar FOB Turkish ports at USD 535 -537.
The volume of transactions has decreased compared to last year, which is due to a drop in market demand. On the other hand, iron ore inventories in Chinese ports will lead to lower prices this current month. Seasonal holidays have begun in Europe and USA, which will negatively impact steel demand.
Regarding hot-rolled coil, which serves as an intermediate steel for many products, demand is stable and does not appear to change until the end of July. Trump's tariffs have altered market routes. On the other hand, Europeans are resisting imports from China to protect their own market. Therefore, the issue of tariff imposition by the US is not limited to the American market alone and has led to competition for goods not exported to the US in other markets. This situation has changed the traditional order governing the markets and caused instability. This instability exacerbates the precautionary aspects of the matter, and naturally, demand will remain in a coma.
In the domestic market: The domestic market is waiting for two reasons: The first issue is the current political climate in the region, which has severely intensified economic precautionary aspects. The second issue is the misguided policies from the commodity exchange, especially regarding pellet pricing. The expectation was that with the implementation of the commodity exchange's resolution, pellet and billet prices would decrease, but strong resistance from pellet producers delayed pellet pricing, and it is likely that the Iron Ore Association will be responsible for pellet pricing.
The economy is subject to political trends, and until economic actors feel secure, the country's economy will not become active. The government is well aware of this issue and is seeking to stabilize economic conditions by injecting money into the stock market. In the current situation, prices for the final product are at the level of last February, while production costs and transportation fees have increased. The reason for low prices is the lack of demand. If the political situation tends towards optimism, prices will rise; otherwise, the situation will remain the same.
CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 689,118/ 1USD
14 July 2025
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM