The Middle East is on track to surpass Asia to become the world’s second-largest gas producer in 2025, ranking only behind North America, according to Rystad Energy research and analysis. Gas production in the Middle East has grown by about 15% since 2020, and the future growth underscores the determination of regional producers to monetize gas reserves and develop export potential to meet global demand.
The region currently produces about 70 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) of gas, a figure that is forecast to increase by 30% by 2030 and 34% by 2035 thanks to significant developments in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE. By 2030, the region will add another 20 Bcfd, equivalent to half of Europe’s entire gas demand as of today. This outlook hinges on Brent prices holding at $70 per barrel and oil-indexed gas prices hovering at the range of $7-9 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). If prices fall below $6 per MMBtu, new projects could be delayed, and expected volume growth by 2030 could decrease from 30% to 20% or less, depending on the severity and duration of the price decline.
To fully capitalize on this growth, the region is preparing for a significant increase in gas exports. By 2030, it will have an additional 10 Bcfd of gas available for export, positioning itself as a major supplier to both Europe – which is working to reduce its reliance on Russian energy – and fast-growing markets in Asia. This expansion is supported by a steady annual production increase of around 6%, with total output projected to reach 90 Bcfd by the end of the decade.
About half of the 20 Bcfd new supply will meet rising domestic demand, particularly from industrial users, while the rest will be available for export. As more long-term gas contracts are signed and export volumes rise, the Middle East is on track to become a key energy hub for countries seeking stable and dependable sources of natural gas,
Mrinal Bhardwaj, Senior Analyst, Upstream Research, Rystad Energy
A significant portion of this expansion will come from new projects that can produce gas at a cost-effective level of less than $5 per thousand cubic feet. The Gulf trio of Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are leading this gas-driven growth, with Qatar’s ambitious North Field expansion set to elevate its liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity by 80%, from 77 to 142 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) by the decade’s end, all while maintaining a competitive breakeven price of under $6 per MMBtu.
A drop below $6 per MMBtu is not ideal for investments, but Middle Eastern projects remain highly resilient due to their low breakeven costs, typically below $5 per thousand cubic feet. Even in a prolonged low-price environment, we expect strong production growth from the region. While some final investment decisions could be delayed in such a scenario, the overall impact on output should be limited,
Rahul Choudhary, Vice President, Upstream Research, Rystad Energy
By 2028, the region is expected to add 60 Mtpa of new capacity, representing a sizable portion of Rystad Energy’s predicted global increase of 150 Mtpa. Qatar is leading this expansion, adding 48 Mtpa through its North Field East and North Field South projects. The UAE will contribute an additional 10 Mtpa from the Ruwais LNG project, and TotalEnergies is developing the Marsa LNG project with a capacity of 1 Mtpa in Oman. We project these developments to involve investments of more than $50 billion, highlighting the region's strategic effort to strengthen its position in the global LNG market.
Iran currently leads the Middle East in gas production, with about 25 Bcfd, followed by Qatar at 16 Bcfd and Saudi Arabia at 8 Bcfd. Iranian gas production, which had been stagnant over the past few years due to Western sanctions, is expected to rise modestly by 6% to approximately 26 Bcfd as the decade ends. The country’s output will come from its legacy South Pars field, which was partially shut down recently during the Iran-Israel conflict after an Israeli airstrike. In contrast, Qatar is poised for significant growth, with production projected to rise nearly 50% to 24 Bcfd, driven by the ongoing development of its massive North Field.
Apart from these two major gas-producing nations, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are expected to each add 3 Bcfd of gas, while Israel’s production is anticipated to increase by 1.5 Bcfd after the next phases of expansion at the Leviathan and Tamar fields. Although Iran is projected to end the decade as the Middle East’s largest gas producer, we expect Qatar to surpass it in the early 2030s.
The UAE and Qatar are undertaking substantial capacity expansions, further cementing the region's role as a future powerhouse in global LNG trade. The new volumes of LNG produced in both Qatar and the UAE are primarily earmarked for Asian and European buyers, with contracts demonstrating a strong preference for Asian markets. Notably, total sales and purchase agreements have surged, peaking at about 21 Mtpa between 2027 and 2030, with Chinese national oil companies and global energy majors emerging as key buyers.
By Rystad Energy