Billet:. Sluggish demand has driven down billet prices.
Long Products
Rebar: Long weekend due to warm weather and lack of energy besides a general market slowdown led to stable rebar price.
I-beam: Suppliers' market-making efforts kept I-beam prices relatively stable.
Flat Products
HRC: Despite market leaders’ efforts, weak demand prevented any improvement in HRC price.
HRP: Decreased demand and competitive pressure from rivals of Oxin Steel led to a price reduction in HRP market.
CRC: . Long weekend and power cuts resulted in a sharp drop in demand and a decline in CRC market.
HDG: The same factors—falling HRC price, market closures, and power cuts—also contributed to the overall price reduction in HDG market too.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: The global market remains quiet and disoriented. While prices have shifted, demand for semi-finished and finished steel products has largely remained stable. Oil prices have reached USD70, and iron ore has surpassed USD100. However, scrap prices are unchanged at USD 345 -347. Billet averages USD 430-435 FOB Black Sea, and slab is holding at USD 410 - 415. This trend suggests that the increase in iron ore and scrap prices is not sustainable, and we will likely see price reductions again in the coming weeks. There's no outlook for a change in this situation.
In the domestic market: Power outages, coupled with water shortages and recurring closures and long weekend, indicate a lack of foresight regarding the mandated policies of the Commodities Exchange. With the potential activation of the "snap back mechanism" and the return of sanctions against Iran, the government urgently needs to formulate a counter-plan.
Export to neighboring countries should be liberalized, and exchange rate policies must be designed for various scenarios. However, contrary to the Supreme Leader's directives, the government is caught in daily routines. We need a unified approach and a clear, export-oriented strategy. Current steel production significantly exceeds domestic consumption. If exports are liberalized with preferential exchange rates, production will increase, production costs will decrease, and employment will rise. Yet, these issues are not reflected in government plans.
Last week, some units using "green electricity" experienced power cuts, which increases production costs. The expulsion of Afghan workers will also make housing construction more expensive and protracted, further highlighting the government's disorganization in managing them.
Given the control over the Commodities Exchange, weak demand, and most importantly, liquidity problems, the steel industry will continue to struggle, with some rolling mills and induction billet units already shut down. Perhaps only state-owned mills will continue production until the end of the year unless government policies change. In this context, attention must be paid to the Central Bank's policies, as an increase in the exchange rate is an unavoidable issue linked to increased liquidity and conflict. However, this time, the exchange rate will not affect the steel market unless export policies are changed.
CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 690,597/ 1USD
28 July 2025
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM