Billet: Demand weakness coupled with supply constraints kept billet price stable.
Long Products
Rebar: Rebar market has reached near stability and is poised for a shift in near future.
I-beam: Supply management held up beam prices.
Flat Products
HRC: HRC market saw a slight increase thanks to supply management and rising currency price.
HRP: Oxin Co HRP production costs and market prices are very close, so a price decrease is not likely.
CRC: CRC cost price is not much different from the market price, so a change on either side of the equation is unlikely.
HDG: Like other flat products, HDG fluctuations have also reached zero.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: Prices haven't changed in the global market. Oil has remained around $70. Iron ore improved by $3 to reach $104 but then returned to last week's level. Scrap metal is unchanged at $346 to $347. Only billet has shown a slight improvement, rising from $434 to $450. Slab also increased by $5 to reach $420. Hot-rolled coil prices remain unchanged at $460. Holidays are over, and the Chinese government's policy for managing excess supply is still unclear. However, whatever this plan is, it won't have a major impact on the markets due to weak demand.
The flood of Chinese products continues to pressure markets, partly due to US tariffs. Concerns about China's economy are growing, with low and potentially negative inflation, rising debt, and a decline in real economic growth raising alarms.
Two things increase steel demand: war or reconstruction. Neither is currently on the horizon, and both require funding that no country currently has.
In the domestic market: Every economy needs a plan, and every plan is based on current conditions and future outlook. The current Iranian year outlook is no longer viable, as politics are strongly overriding economic concerns. The potential return of sanctions has also delayed all economic decision-making.
In this situation, power outages and water shortages have severely impacted production, so everyone involved is adopting a "wait-and-see" approach.
Last week, the stock market's plan for upstream steel transactions was announced, which intensified doubts and uncertainty. It's unclear if the real goal is to increase exports or control prices, but it will likely create an environment for rent-seeking behavior.
iven the current situation, demand has bottomed out, and supply is at its minimum. A price decrease in the production sector is not possible for various reasons. Everything depends on the currency exchange rate. With the central bank's new policies, an increase in the export currency rate is expected, which will boost exports. However, assuming the status quo is maintained, there is no reason for prices to drop. We'll have to wait for the results of the commodity exchange program.
CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 693,253/ 1USD
18 Aug 2025
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM