Billet: Weak demand for billet was noted last week in Iran domestic market, with most credit sales finalized, but a softening in the currency exchange rate led to a sluggish market.
Long Products
Rebar: Following a price increase the previous week, rebar price fell back and faced resistance.
I-beam: Weak demand caused a drop in the price of beams.
Flat Products
HRC: Price of 2mm HRC from Mobarakeh Steel Company also saw a slight decrease, from 447,000 rials on Saturday to 442,000 rials by Wednesday, following new supply to the market.
HRP: Controlled supply kept Oxin co HRP stable.
CRC: Higher supply of some thin CRC (below 1mm) at the beginning of the week initially dropped prices but market returned.
HDG: Lower HRC price made HDG market also downward.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: In global markets, verall prices showed no significant change. OPEC oil remained around $71 per barrel, iron ore at $105 per ton, and imported scrap to Turkey was down $5 at $335 per ton. Black Sea billet was at $440 FOB, while slab saw a $5 increase to $425 FOB. China's export HRC also rose by $5 to $480 FOB per ton.
Global markets remain calm without major changes. The political climate, including the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, US sanctions, and the potential "snapback" of sanctions on Iran, has created a sense of stagnation. Iran is a major supplier of minerals and billet to global markets, and the absence of its pellets, DRI, and billet will likely disrupt regional prices. The market is in a waiting state, anticipating the impact of the snapback.
In the domestic market: Domestic market is awaiting the effects of the snapback sanctions and government decisions. The snapback is expected to lead to severe stagflation, marked by:
1. Increased foreign exchange rates
2. Higher interest rates
3. Reduced investment
4. Capital flight
5. Increased unemployment
As a result of these factors, steel production is expected to decrease, but prices will rise due to higher production costs. If the currency from rebar, pipe, and profile exports is transferred to the secondary market, the prices of billets and upstream materials like pellets will not fall. Otherwise, due to the impact of sanctions on pellet exports, there will likely be a recession in the pellet market.
The Iranian government faces a difficult test. The core issue is not the sanctions themselves, but the government's approach to them. In other countries facing similar economic challenges, governments have humbly collaborated with both private and public sectors to find solutions. The government has an opportunity to turn this threat into a positive outcome. If it fails to do so, the consequences are unpredictable, as the private sector will focus solely on its own survival without a clear plan. However, the market has already found a way forward, with exports of billets and other steel products to non-traditional destinations, particularly Afghanistan, increasing and expanding.
CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 692.154 / 1USD
22 Sep 2025
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM