Billet: Rising currency exchange rates and sanction concerns have driven up the price of billet during last week in Iran domestic market.
Long Products
Rebar: Supply chain management and market sentiment have increased the price of rebar.
I-beam: Due to the increase in currency rate and the rising price of billet, rebar price has also increased.
Flat Products
HRC: Price of 2mm thickness HRC from Mobarakeh Steel Company rose from Rials 4,520,000 on Saturday to Rials 4,600,000 by Wednesday. This market was completely volatile due to fluctuations in currency exchange rates.
HRP: Rising currency exchange rates, along with the increase in slab prices, were key factors in the upward trend of Oxin Co HRP prices.
CRC: CRC price was affected by currency rate fluctuations, while purchases from the stock market also influenced this product.
HDG: Despite weak demand, the increase in currency rate affected HDG price.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: The global market remains calm, with prices mostly trending downward and a negative outlook for the coming weeks.
There are no signs of improving demand, and the market trend remains sluggish. A report last week about a 1.5-million-ton demand for a tower in Saudi Arabia won't quickly impact the market and may face the same fate as the Neom City project.
Last month, China reduced production and began demolishing unfinished homes. The policy of demolishing half-built houses signals the end of China's golden age of real estate. Today, China is grappling with unemployment and an oversupply of housing, cars, and home appliances. Under these conditions, there is no hope for an improved domestic market in China. As a result, the trend of Chinese exports upward trend will not only continue but will also intensify.
In the domestic market: The market has factored in and preemptively reacted to the sanctions, leading to the sale of most products offered on the stock exchange. The coming weeks will be highly volatile. While steel mills may show accounting profits, economically, they are all losing. The electricity issue has raised their costs, and the gas problem is on the horizon.
In past weeks, the impact of "snapback" sanctions has been discussed, and in the future, we will see a decrease in the export of iron ore concentrate, pellets, DRI and billet. However, the stickiness of sales prices to costs will not allow for a serious price reduction. On the other hand, the budget deficit will cause inflation, and the government must choose between inflation and employment.
Experience has shown that governments that move towards a command economy face problems. In any case, the new situation requires the government to centralize policymaking but to decentralize foreign trade as much as possible to bypass sanctions.
Given the current situation, price reductions are unlikely. Some items like rebar will maintain demand due to increased defense needs. Rebar prices will be met with caution from stakeholders due to construction issues. The future of steel sheets depends on the export of slabs and sheets, as their consumption outlook is not promising.
CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 693,490 / 1USD
29 Sep 2025
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM