Billet: Concern about future market drove up billet demand and prices.
Long Products
Rebar: Rising currency rate broke the market's resistance, leading to an increase in rebar prices.
I-beam: Increases in previous weeks strained I-beam market's growth momentum, and traders are now opting to liquidate their inventory.
Flat Products
HRC: Despite the stagnant demand in the market, HRC price increased, largely due to the rising ex- rate.
HRP: Although demand for Oxin Co HRP was weak, its price had already hit its floor.The 10mm size, however, is facing severe supply constraints.
CRC: Shortage of thin sizes, coupled with a surge in demand and the rising exchange rate, drove up CRC price.
HDG: The rising exchange rate and fluctuations in HRC prices combined to push up HDG price.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: Global markets were largely quiet, with little significant movement. However, the outlook is generally flat.
• Oil Price: OPEC oil prices were $67 per barrel, down from $70, indicating a lack of growth prospects.
• Iron Ore: The price dropped slightly from $106 to $104 CFR China ports. This minor decline coincided with an ongoing pricing stalemate between China and one of Australia's largest producers.
• Scrap: Scrap price increased from $342 to $345 CFR Turkey, driven by market activity in the US and increased purchases in Turkey.
• Semi-Finished & Finished Steel: Prices held relatively stable across key benchmarks:
o Billet: $435 FOB Black Sea ports (nearly flat).
o Slab: $420 FOB Black Sea ports (nearly flat).
o HRC (Hot-Rolled Coil): $470 FOB China ports (stable).
o Rebar: $535 FOB Turkey ports (stable).
The global markets situation is static, but Chinese exports, particularly of billet, continue to flood international markets.
The US government shutdown is slowing down economic activity and impacting investment and the overall economic outlook, though political maneuvers (like those potentially by Trump) are also playing a role.
In the domestic market: Domestic market has practically internalized the sanctions, a belief that is now driving a search for new solutions. Sanctions are expected to have two major effects:
1. Increased government centralization and a move toward a more command-and-control economy.
2. Market contraction, driven by investment concerns and deeper cuts to the national development budget.
Last week, the Ministry of Industry, Mine, and Trade (MIMT) moved to implement the mandated pricing resolution. This sets the base ceiling price for rebar at Rials 318,000, which will likely lead to intense price competition on IME ( Iran Mercantile Exchange). Consequently, the Exchange price is expected to converge with the open market price.
Mills that bought billets at the Rials 330,000 base price last week will soon split into two groups: those that restrict supply and prioritize cash sales, and others that use credit sales to compete. Overall supply volume is expected to drop over the next one or two weeks while the market adjusts.
The exchange rate is highly decisive in this environment. While existing stocks are priced below current market rates, traders are still buying to maintain a lower average cost, worried about replacement costs if the currency continues to climb. This dynamic is less true for flats, which is not a finished good.
If the currency continues its upward trend, purchasing will continue. If it stabilizes or slightly declines, the market will quiet down and find its footing. Sanctions may affect finished products but will have less impact on intermediate goods like billet, as exports continue through various, hard-to-track borders.
Any government policy will likely only be effective until mid-November, after which natural gas issues will take over control. Ultimately, even with MIMT pressure, prices cannot fall significantly due to high production costs.
CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 696,489 / 1USD
06 Oct 2025
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM