Billet: Billet price fluctuated with the exchange rate, a situation caused by supply constraints and growing export opportunities.
Long Products
Rebar: Rebar market was significantly disrupted by exchange rate volatility combined with a sharp decrease in supply.
I-beam: The downward trend in beam prices was halted due to a reduction in supply on the IME ( Iran Mercantile Exchange).
Flat Products
HRC: The price of 2mm HRC from Mobarakeh Steel saw a rapid increase. This price surge was driven by Mobarakah's market control alongside the rising foreign exchange rate.
HRP: Weak demand prevented any significant fluctuation in Oxin steel co HRP prices, which were further stabilized by the competitive supply of rival products.
CRC: Despite the recent offerings on the commodity exchange, the prices of some thicknesses of CRC continued to climb. The main drivers for this increase are rooted in the exchange rate and the export potential of this product.
HDG: Rising foreign exchange rate and the increased price of HRC subsequently pushed the price of HDG.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: Global prices have not shown any significant change. The apparent conclusion of the Gaza conflict signals a period of reconstruction in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon. Consequently, in the coming months, we anticipate a flow of contracts that will boost the movement of both money and goods. Regardless of which countries win these contracts, this massive undertaking will result in increased circulation of capital, commodities, and labor.
Naturally, the countries involved in these reconstruction deals will experience a surge in domestic demand. We should expect an economic leap in Turkey, the Arab countries, the US, and Israel.
This reconstruction phase might bring stability to the region, although the actual start of rebuilding is at least a year away. However, during this preparatory year, tensions are expected to minimize to build the necessary trust.
In other parts of the world, there is no news of increased demand, so price trends are expected to remain stable.
In the domestic market: The domestic market experienced a two-pronged tension:
1. Currency Exchange Tension: While the Central Bank was speaking about a decrease in the exchange rate, the policy requiring steel companies to transfer their foreign currency earnings to the "Second Hall" (a specific tier of the exchange market) sent a conflicting signal to the steel sector.
2. Pricing Policy Tension: The second tension was the government's insistence on enforcing its regulation that steel's domestic price must be calculated as the customs-declared export price multiplied by the Central Bank's cash exchange rate.
Market Reaction and Activity:
• Bilet: Thanks to high export activity, the billet market has been very strong over the last three weeks. However, producers of finished steel sections resisted the Stock Exchange's decision to lower prices based on the new formula.
• Producers' Response: Supply was restricted, and delivery dates were pushed back by a month. Despite this, the attractive base price led to competitive bidding, with prices in some instances exceeding the previous week's transaction prices. One deal was canceled, reportedly because the buyer intended to export the material.
• Flat products: Last week's activity regarding flat products, despite Mobarakeh Steel's market control efforts, signaled optimism in the steel market. The main drivers were the exchange rate in the "Second Hall" and the rising rate in the free market.
• Short-Term Forecast: The overall price trend is predicted to be upward for the next month, reaching its peak. After that, the market is expected to face stagnation unless the currency rate and exports continue their upward trajectory.
• Winners and Risks: Suppliers who offer large volumes and provide credit terms through the exchange are positioned to be the winners. Crucially, the threat of mandated pricing by the Stock Exchange remains, and upcoming gas cuts in the colder months are an additional factor.
• Conclusion: The overall rising price trend is fully anticipated, with no apparent reason for a decrease. Among the products, billet, rebar, and certain sheet items have the strongest momentum.
CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 696,640 / 1USD
13 Oct 2025
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM