Billet: Billet price trended upward thanks to the increase in the second-hall exchange rate.
Long Products
Rebar: Political stability and the rise in the exchange rate helped improve the rebar market.
I-beam: Despite weak demand, beam price increased due to the higher exchange rate.
Flat Products
HRC: Hot-rolled coil prices has reached the bottom, but demand remains sluggish, so prices stayed unchanged.
HRP: Increased supply along with stable demand kept Oxin Co HRP price steady.
CRC: CRC demand is gradually quieting; if exchange rate remains stable, the market will likely stay unchanged.
HDG: Stability in HRC market led to steady HDG price.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: The global market slowdown continues, and the Chinese New Year holidays are reinforcing this silence. Before the holidays, African iron ore finally arrived in China, but the holiday period helped support the market and prevented prices from falling—something that may not hold in the coming months. Oil price is showing a downward tendency as the United States has begun extracting oil from Venezuela. They will likely hold the proceeds in their own banks, similar to Iraqi oil revenues, and then lend the same funds back to Venezuela for restricted purchases. It remains to be seen whether China will gain any advantage from this situation.
With current U.S. policies, new economic models may need to be defined—something resembling modern forms of economic control rather than traditional free markets. Under these conditions, classical economic theories associated with Adam Smith, Keynes, or Friedman may have limited relevance. If this trajectory continues, Europe could face increasing economic weakness and may be forced to protect its markets against China. Such conditions are not sustainable indefinitely.
The market outlook after the Chinese holidays will depend heavily on developments in the Persian Gulf region. If the current situation continues, the slowdown will likely persist; however, in the event of a conflict between Iran and the United States, the outlook would become highly unpredictable.
In the domestic market: Power outages have finally been resolved, and gas supply is gradually returning. The key question, however, is whether production costs will also return to normal.
On the other hand, the commodity exchange is using a fundamentally flawed formula by setting domestic prices based on the export price multiplied by the second-hall exchange rate. Each of these markets operates independently, and such a policy would only be reasonable in an open, sanction-free economy.
In practice, only about two working weeks remain in the current Iranian year. Last month, exports declined due to reduced production, and prices also fell, with billet being offered at around USD 390/mt FOB. Meanwhile, pellet is scarce in the domestic market, DRI has reached a base price of Rials 240,000 /kilo, and construction activity has dropped to minimal levels. The outlook for next year’s budget also does not indicate any increase in infrastructure spending.
In the coming weeks, everything will depend on producers’ liquidity needs and the exchange rate. A general price increase across all products is unlikely, while price declines are also difficult due to rising production costs. As a result, the probability of market stagnation is very high.
CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products : Rials 1,364,714 / 1USD
16 Feb, 2026
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM