Billet: Billet prices remained largely unchanged. Cash-based offerings in a market facing liquidity constraints were the main factor supporting price stability.
Long Products
Rebar: Weak demand was the primary reason for the stability of rebar prices.
I-beam: Supply management was the key factor behind the stability of beam prices.
Flat Products
HRC: Higher supply and retreating demand led to HRC price decline. The market for this product is moving toward greater stability.
HRP: The downward trend in demand was the main reason for the decline in Oxin steel plate prices.
CRC: The seasonal slowdown in demand for CRC has begun. At the same time, increased supply from producers other than Mobarakeh Steel has contributed to a calmer market.
HDG: Stable HRC prices helped maintain market calm and resulted in a limited decline in HDG prices.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: Weak demand continues to weigh on the world market last week. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has intensified uncertainty across the global economy. At the same time, rising oil and gas prices have increased production costs. Higher energy prices in Turkey have pushed product prices upward and, given the weak demand environment, have further deepened the market slowdown.
The iron ore market remains on a downward trend. China's growing imports of iron ore from Guinea have put downward pressure on prices. Given the substantial investments made by Chinese companies in Guinea and China's broader strategy of resource self-sufficiency, this trend is expected to accelerate.
Chinese firms have acquired mining assets in Guinea, developed and equipped the mines, built their own railways and ports, and throughout the process have relied heavily on Chinese labor and support services. As a result, Guinea's primary economic benefit comes from iron ore sales revenues, from which it must also service the related financing obligations. Consequently, iron ore exports are unlikely to have a significant impact on local employment or business activity in Guinea. However, they provide China with an opportunity to secure iron ore at prices as low as USD 80 CFR Chinese ports.
Early signs of this shift are already visible in Australia's iron ore export sector, to the extent that Australian iron ore producers have reportedly called on the government for support.
The world is currently in a wait-and-see mode, hoping for stability in the Middle East, a region that remains a major source of capital, demand, and energy supplies. Ultimately, much will depend on Iran's policies and the future trajectory of its relationship with the United States.
In the domestic market: The domestic market experienced a highly volatile week. At the beginning of the week, discussions centered on a possible settlement, while by the end of the week attention had shifted to the prospect of conflict, keeping the market unsettled throughout. The outlook remains extremely difficult to predict, and this uncertainty has resulted in minimal investment activity.
On the export side, encouraging signs are emerging in the billet market. However, the current exchange rate does not provide sufficient incentive for market participants to accept the associated risks. There are virtually no signs of imports, as import activity has become directly dependent on export performance. As a result, many import registration requests are being rejected. Should exports recover, increased supply would help stabilize domestic prices. Nevertheless, exchange-rate fluctuations remain a major risk that the government is reluctant to tolerate.
On the export side, encouraging signs are emerging in the billet market. However, the current exchange rate does not provide sufficient incentive for market participants to accept the associated risks. There are virtually no signs of imports, as import activity has become directly dependent on export performance. As a result, many import registration requests are being rejected. Should exports recover, increased supply would help stabilize domestic prices. Nevertheless, exchange-rate fluctuations remain a major risk that the government is reluctant to tolerate.
In the final hours of Friday, reports emerged that negotiations between Iran and the United States had reached an agreement. The first expected impact would be a rapid decline in the exchange rate, particularly amid rumors that Iranian assets held in the UAE may be released. While the currency is likely to weaken initially, a lower exchange rate would also reduce export competitiveness, potentially leading to a subsequent correction. This environment could create opportunities for speculative traders.
Such an understanding had been anticipated. This week was expected to witness one of the largest equity offerings in the United States, and for the sale of SpaceX shares to proceed successfully, financial markets needed a stable environment. Investor confidence and a sense of security were therefore essential. In addition, the timing coincides with President Trump's birthday, an occasion that naturally attracts significant public attention.
CBI average ex-rate: Rials 1,486,250/1USD
15 June, 2026
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR