Billet: Severe supply constraints drove prices higher. EAF billet is currently not being offered in the market, causing induction furnace products to rise by IRR 7,000/kg over the past two weeks. The exchange rate's increase toward the end of the week further supported the upward price trend.
Long Products
Rebar: Reduced supply, a higher exchange rate, and electricity restrictions pushed rebar prices higher.
I-beam: Optimism driven by the stronger exchange rate and tighter supply led to a slight improvement in beam prices.
Flat Products
HRC: Mobarakeh Steel's market-making efforts lifted HRC prices slightly, while expectations of Saturday's supply announcement kept the market in a wait-and-see mode.
HRP: A moderate recovery in slab prices, together with the stronger exchange rate, led to higher Oxin plate prices.
CRC: The appreciation of the exchange rate pushed CRC prices higher, although demand remained largely unchanged.
HDG: Higher HRC prices, combined with the stronger exchange rate, drove galvanized coil prices upward.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: The global market remains in a downturn. The tensions between Iran and the United States have heightened uncertainty across global markets, and this, combined with the broader economic slowdown, continues to prevent any meaningful price recovery.
Even the possibility of BHP strike at Port Hedland has had little impact on prices. Summer holidays and extreme heat in many parts of the world have further dampened market activity, making a recovery unlikely over the next month.
Ultimately, the core issue remains the situation in the Persian Gulf. Before any sustained improvement in market sentiment can occur, this geopolitical uncertainty will need to be resolved.
In the domestic market: Demand remains weak, while exports of iron ore, pellets, and concentrate have declined sharply due to the maritime blockade. Billet exports continue through Iran's western border; however, demand in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan has also softened because of the extreme summer heat.
At the same time, electricity shortages continue to constrain domestic steel production. Following the recent developments at Bandar Abbas, if South Kaveh Steel is able to maintain production, some of its output may be redirected to the domestic market. However, given the ongoing power constraints, this is unlikely to have a significant impact on overall supply. The more critical factor remains the exchange rate.
Inflation is being driven primarily by two factors: rapid growth in liquidity and the depreciation of the domestic currency. In an effort to contain inflation, the central bank has tightened bank lending by restricting credit expansion. While this policy may curb inflationary pressures, it also deepens the economic slowdown and contributes to higher unemployment. The result is a more concentrated economy, with a shrinking role for the private sector.
Meanwhile, declining government revenues have widened the fiscal deficit, increasing the likelihood of further monetary expansion to finance spending. In many respects, the economy has entered a cycle similar to that experienced by several Latin American countries, characterized by persistent inflation, fiscal imbalances, and monetary financing. The impact of the ongoing war and continued capital flight has only intensified these challenges.
Until the conflict comes to an end, the exchange rate will remain the dominant driver of the market, and there is currently little indication of a meaningful downward trend.
One final point should not be overlooked: even if the war were to end today and foreign currency inflows increased substantially, steel prices would not necessarily fall significantly. Structural constraints in electricity and water infrastructure, together with pent-up demand, are likely to keep domestic steel prices relatively elevated.
CBI average ex-rate: Rials 1,506,885/1USD
20th July, 2026
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
Irsteel.com