Billet: Billet prices remained stable, but expectations of an increase in the market are strong.
Long Products
Rebar: Expectations of a rebar price increase are serious, as supply has declined.
I-beam: I-beam prices increased amid inflationary expectations.
Flat Products
HRC: Hot-rolled coil prices were on an upward trend. Mobarakeh’s supply temporarily calmed the market, but its impact is expected to be short-lived.
HRP: Higher slab prices pushed up Oxin plate prices at the end of the week.
CRC: The rise in the exchange rate and hot-rolled coil prices drove the increase in cold-rolled coil prices at the end of the week.
HDG: Higher exchange rates, HRC and CRC prices pushed up HDG prices.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: The global market remains sluggish. Iron ore prices are still below $100 CFR China ports. Scrap has improved slightly, as has billet, but as in previous weeks, this is driven by cost pressures rather than an improvement in demand.
The impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on the global economy is becoming entrenched, with what began as a seasonal crisis turning into a severe recession. Exiting a global recession will not be easy; inflation and unemployment are among its consequences, while the pace of recovery will depend on the economic conditions of each country. The better prepared a country’s infrastructure is, the faster it can potentially emerge from recession.
History has shown that if a recession persists and deepens, it can lead to political crises and war. One difference between the current period of recession and the periods preceding the First and Second World Wars is the presence of artificial intelligence and humanoid robots. Both are contributing to lower consumption. In recent months, more than 100,000 people have lost their jobs in the US and Europe, most of them white-collar employees rather than workers.
If this trend continues, it will deepen the crisis and recession, as production increases while consumption declines due to rising unemployment. Artificial intelligence is transforming the nature of production; for the past three years, so-called “dark factories” in China have been operating with the use of humanoid robots. Rising unemployment and declining marriage rates in China are part of this trend.
The world needs rapid reform.
In the domestic market: The domestic market has seen several significant developments:
First, the change in the banks’ foreign-currency conversion rate, which is adjusted by the Central Bank every six months. The rate increased from IRR 1,350,000 to IRR 1,650,000 per US dollar. This increases the lending capacity of banks, which are already under severe constraints, through the revaluation of their foreign-currency assets and liabilities, and will naturally lead to an increase in the money supply.
The second development is a $20-per-ton increase in the pellet premium, which could create inflationary pressures throughout the steel value chain. This has not yet been implemented, but a Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade letter regarding the measure has been circulated in the media.
These developments come as the market is facing supply constraints through the exchange. In fact, the exchange has been signaling higher inflation expectations to the market since last week. Traders are trying to buy and stockpile as much material as possible. Their rationale is based on the exchange’s behavior and the possibility of lower production in the coming months. Uncertainty surrounding negotiations with the US adds a further precautionary element.
The overall result of these signals is a strong effort to buy. If the exchange rate changes, this strategy will have fully paid off. However, this trend will ultimately lead to recession because there is no underlying consumption. If exports are disrupted for any reason, the market will face an oversupply. For example, if the exchange were to abandon its current interventionist policies and put more pressure on the supply side, as in premium-based transactions, the market would stabilize. However, as in previous weeks, the key factor remains the exchange rate.
CBI average ex-rate: Rials 1,728,5/1USD
28 Sep, 2026
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
Irsteel.com